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HIRI’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit, held Sept. 29-30 in Minneapolis, examined economic conditions, customer behavior, AI and industry forecasts. HIRI reported that the home improvement products market is projected to grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, but shrink 1.5% after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine market trends, AI’s influence on renovation decisions and economic pressures on home improvement. HIRI said its market forecast projects 2.5% growth in current dollars for home improvement products in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The summit organized its sessions around five topics: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending and sales channels. Speakers discussed how inflation, housing affordability, income and mortgage rates affect homebuilding, homebuying and consumer decisions. Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, said the median age of a first-time homebuyer is now 40, compared with 29 in 1981.
HIRI’s Dave King, Ralph McLaughlin of OpenBrand and Michael Zdinak of S&P Global addressed the pressures facing buyers. The source report does not provide specific figures for the effects of mortgage rates, affordability or income, but identifies them as factors discussed at the event. The sessions also looked at how contractors and other professionals shape recommendations and customer preferences.
Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented findings from the Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The reported score for contractor confidence in getting business over the next six months was 8.2 out of 10. The source does not specify the index’s full methodology or a prior-period score for comparison.
AI and Inflation Shape Demand
The figures presented at the summit point to a market where nominal growth and inflation-adjusted contraction can occur at the same time. The distinction matters to manufacturers and retailers: a higher total measured in current dollars does not necessarily mean consumers are buying more products after accounting for rising prices. HIRI’s forecast offers a near-term signal for companies planning sales, inventory and investment, though it is a projection rather than a final accounting of 2026 performance.
AI may also be changing how homeowners research renovation work. Liza Hausman, senior vice president of marketing at Houzz, presented research stating that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI to help. Those measures describe adoption and the share of spending associated with those households; they do not establish that AI caused the spending or improved project outcomes. For home improvement businesses, the findings suggest AI is becoming part of the customer journey, while leaving open what it means for purchasing behavior and sales.
Contractor confidence, meanwhile, provides a separate view of expected business conditions. The 8.2 out of 10 score suggests positive expectations among the measure’s respondents, but without further methodology or a comparison period, it cannot by itself show whether confidence is rising or predict actual future revenue.
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Five Themes Framed the Summit
HIRI’s event brought home improvement professionals together to review industry data and discuss forces affecting the market. Its five themes connected broader economic conditions with practical business questions: how customers make choices, how research informs decisions, how much households spend on projects, and which sales channels reach them.
The summit also featured Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, who spoke about maintaining the brand’s relevance. According to the source report, O’Connor emphasized earning trust through education, avoiding errors and not appearing transactional. King, speaking about growth heading into 2027, urged manufacturers to reduce uncertainty in customer decisions in the coming quarter. The source does not provide further details about specific actions he recommended.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— Dave King, HIRI
Forecasts Leave Key Details Open
The 2026 market figures are forecasts, not confirmed year-end results. The source report does not explain the forecast’s assumptions, identify possible ranges of outcomes or say how the 2026 projection compares with earlier HIRI forecasts. It also does not give a specific date for a final accounting of the year.
The summit recap reports AI use and spending shares from Houzz research but does not describe the survey sample, question wording or how the figures were calculated. It is therefore unclear how representative those findings are of homeowners generally, or whether AI use changed renovation spending. The report also does not provide the contractor index’s detailed methodology or historical scores, limiting what can be inferred from its 8.2 rating.
Watch for Results and New Data
HIRI’s forecast points to continued market monitoring into 2027, while the summit’s contractor and homeowner findings offer reference points for businesses tracking demand and customer behavior. The source report does not announce a specific date for HIRI’s next forecast or additional summit research.
The next useful evidence will be updated market data that shows whether the forecast’s current-dollar growth and inflation-adjusted decline matched actual results, alongside repeat measures of contractor confidence and AI use. Until those figures are available, the summit’s findings describe the research and outlook presented at the event, not settled outcomes.
Key Questions
What did HIRI’s 2026 summit focus on?
The summit covered macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending and sales channels in the home improvement industry.
What is HIRI’s 2026 market forecast?
HIRI’s reported forecast projects the home improvement products market will grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026 and shrink 1.5% after inflation. These are forecasts, not final results.
What did the summit report about AI use in renovations?
Houzz research presented by Liza Hausman said 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation, and 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI to help. The report does not establish that AI caused that spending.
How confident were contractors about future business?
The Q3 2026 Farnsworth Contractor Index put confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. The source report does not provide a prior-period score or full methodology.
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